Sunday, April 13, 2014

Would WWII ever have happened without Neutrals like Sweden and Switzerland ?

If most of the countries that were allies of France and Britain in WWI hadn't remained neutral in 1939, WWII might never had begun .

But for today let us consider that those few who were neutral with regards to the Kaiser and who also remained neutral to the far far more evil Hitler twenty five years later.

Consider - for example - if America would have stayed out of the European portion of WWII in September 1939 if Spain had been part of some Triple Alliance with Germany and Italy ?

Imagine if all three had declared war on France and Britain on September 2nd.

In reality, supposed German treaty ally Italy refused to join in attacking Poland (which it could easily do so by transiting through Austria and Czechoslovakia ) and Spain remained neutral, irked by Hitler cuddling up with the Communists only weeks earlier.

In 1939-1940,  the myth of the French Army and its Maginot Line easily holding back Germany was so strong that few in the rest of the world took seriously the thought that Germany might win a war against the Allies.

So why should the USA get involved to maintain free global trade when France and the UK had the situation in hand ?

By suddenly that same France is now facing enemies on three (not just one) land fronts - and with militarily useless Neutrals like Belgium and Switzerland on the two other land borders.

Who then would be as confident of the longterm prospects of France and its ally Britain ?

Or consider the large --- long  --- rugged landmass of Sweden as an ally of Britain and France.

It has one coast open to easy ocean access from Britain and a coast with very close access to the core of Germany ---- and to Poland.

A two front war against any German thrust into Poland now looked real and the possibility might have stilled Hitler's hand.

Germany is not normally thought of as having a strong geographic position in any war but much depends on the nations to the north and south of it.

Sweden-Denmark and Switzerland-Italy remaining friendly Neutrals and Russia in an alliance with Germany meant that in September 1939  the only way to really aid Poland was an a mobility-oriented armoured assault across the neutral Low Land countries' plains into Germany.

But all three Low Lands remained firmly neutral - and conducting a massive free-flowing armoured assault was not something in either Britain or France's military genes anyway.

But the possibility of a sudden sea-lead assault by the British from the north down past Denmark into Germany combined with a more conventional French assault eastward across the French-German border might have made Hitler nervous about putting his best troops and tanks all into a Polish effort.

And Russia would have been now unlikely to jump into Poland from the East - giving the Poles a real chance to resist the Germans.

WWII was an wicked, charity-less war - but there was lots of wickedness and lack of charity to go around - ladle a lot onto Hitler but save a big lump for the Neutrals of Europe, who watched as their neighbours were murdered and shed not a tear .

Evil bullies need Neutral bystanders to succeed ...

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